by Steve Dunford
This is for Sunday, April 30. Confidence from the SPC must be high, issuing this seven days out. (NOAA image)
First of all, enjoy today and tomorrow. It is going to be picture perfect with highs in the 70’s.
There is going to be a stormy pattern setting up starting on Wednesday. The weather service has Southern Illinois under a marginal risk of severe weather (Level 1 of 5) for Southern Illinois. We are going to keep an eye on it because Southeast Missouri is under a slight risk (level 2 of 5).
Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel has the TORCON level for Southern Illinois listed as 2 to 3 with scattered severe weather. That means there is a 20 to 30 percent chance of a tornado warning being issued within 50 miles of the areas he outlines.
One thing that grabbed my attention for Wednesday afternoon is the National Weatjer Service in Paducah was alerting Storm Spotters for the possibility of Severe Weather for Wednesday. I keep my spotter certification up and participate in online seminars still with the National Weather Service. They sent out the email last night. Alerting that far in advance is unusual. Wednesday is worth keeping your eye out for.
Thursday is going to be cooler with a slight chance of showers.
Our next weather maker will come in on Friday as there is a good chance of thunderstorms coming into Friday afternoon into the evening hours. The confidence level to forecast anything severe is still low because it is still too early to tell.
The weather is causing local high school athletic directors scrambling to reschedule high school baseball and softball games and track meets. I know there will be rivalry games between Benton and West Frankfort in baseball and softball that has been rescheduled already that is on the slate Friday.
Saturday is supposed to be stormy as well. The confidence for severe weather is to far out to tell.
Sunday the Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area that the southern seven counties are in for a chance to see some severe weather. (graphic above) Even though the confidence at this time is 15 percent, it is what a slight risk would be if it is three days out.
This grabbed my attention in a hurry this morning. If the SPC issues the chance for severe weather this far out, their confidence level must be high.
I will provide daily updates on the developing situation.
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