by Steve Dunford 

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded all of Southern Illinois to a moderate risk (level 4) for severe weather tomorrow.

The wind advisory for area lakes is still in effect today.  Models are showing that we will be under the gun here in Franklin County from about 5:00 tomorrow until about 2:00 A.M. on Sunday morning.

Highs will reach into the upper 80’s tomorrow with a lot of humidity.  Ahead of a couple waves of storms that is projected to come through between 10:00 p.m. and midnight, and pop up storm that would form can quickly become severe.  The SPC said these storms could be explosive.

This is what has my concern, and prompted the moderate risk.  You can see in the graphic that most of Missouri and Southern Illinois is n the 45% range with hash marks.

This means there is a 45% chance within a 25 mile area that severe weather could occur.  The definition of severe weather is straight line winds over 58mph, one inch hail, and tornadoes.

Dr Greg Forbes has his TORCON value unchanged at three.  KFVS has the probability of tornadoes in their coverage area at 4 on a scale to 10.  For large hail and damaging winds it is a 6.

The Lake Wind advisory is still in effect.  Memorial day weekend is a time for outdoor activities.  Below is some outdoor safety tips in severe weather.  I posted them yesterday.

I will do my best to keep you informed of this upcoming weather event.

Press Release from the US Army Corps of Engineers – Rend Lake Office 

BENTON, IL— Before you head out for a day on or near the water, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) encourages you to make sure you have life jackets for everyone and that you wear them.

South Sandusky Beach on Rend Lake illinoiscampers.com image

In the last 10 years, 88 percent of all USACE public water-related fatalities were men and 68 percent were between the ages of 20 and 60, according to data compiled by the USACE National Operations Center for Water Safety. The center also reports that 84 percent of all public water-related fatalities involved people not wearing life jackets and found that the greatest number of water-related fatalities involved people swimming in areas not designated for swimming. In addition, 27 percent of boating fatalities involved people falling overboard.

Several people who drown never intended to be in the water; they unexpectedly fell from a boat or dock into the water. When this happens, a person will reflexively gasp and can inhale up to one liter of water and drown in less than a minute.

Even a strong swimmer can drown from a fall into cold water because it causes an involuntary gasp (or torso) reflex. A life jacket can help save your life by allowing time for rescue. Some researchers believe cold water is anything lower than normal body temperature of 98.6°F.

Others get into trouble swimming out to retrieve a boat that floated away, or swimming in association with a boat. Swimming in natural waters is not the same as swimming in a pool. Even strong swimmers can get into trouble and be gone within seconds. It takes an average of 60 seconds for an adult to drown and just 20 seconds for a child to drown. Swimming ability also decreases with age.

Swim at a designated swim beach. These areas have been inspected to provide a safe swimming environment. At all USACE beaches you swim at your own risk so adults please watch your children, because most people drowned within 10 feet of safety. Many shorelines at USACE lake and river projects have drop offs and you can be in water over your head instantly or pulled under by the current.

Always wear the right size and type of life jacket for the activity you are enjoying. Life Jackets Worn…Nobody Mourns. Learn more at PleaseWearIt.com.

USACE is the nation’s largest federal provider of water-based outdoor recreation, managing more than 400 lake and river projects in 43 states and hosting more than 250 million visits per year. They provide a diverse range of outdoor activities close to home and to people of all ages. For more information on USACE recreation sites and activities, visit www.CorpsLakes.us.

WEST FRANKFORT, IL (Roni Leforge – WSIL TV. Please click to read the full story and watch the accompanying video. Here is an excerpt) City leaders dispute claims they didn’t do enough to ease flooding that caused people to leave their homes. Several homes had more than six inches of standing water inside over the weekend, which led some residents to believe the city’s pumps may have not been working properly. But News 3 spoke with the mayor, who says the pumps were working just fine. The system just couldn’t get the water out of town quickly enough. Michele Odle spent Tuesday morning unpacking her home. “I left pots and pans and stuff like that in there, but all my big furniture and stuff was all in a U-Haul,” said Odle. Within hours on Saturday morning, her yard had become a lake. She and her husband decided to get the important things out, so they wouldn’t be destroyed by flood waters.