TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 41 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 215 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017 TORNADO WATCH 41 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ILC003-005-013-027-047-051-055-059-061-065-069-077-081-083-087- 117-119-121-127-133-135-145-151-153-157-163-165-181-185-189-191- 193-199-010300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0041.170228T2015Z-170301T0300Z/ IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN CLINTON EDWARDS FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GREENE HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE ST. CLAIR UNION WABASH WASHINGTON

The threat of severe weather for tonight has been discussed for the last 48 hours or so.  Most of the models that I have looked at this morning will show some cells that will from in front of the main squall line after dark.  Most models show the squall line coming through around 3:00 a.m. tomorrow morning.

Those cells that form in front of the line

have the potential to become super-cells with the greatest risk of any tornadic activity in front of the line.

The greatest threat in the squall line will bed damaging thunderstorm winds.  Large hail and an inbedded Tornado can not be ruled out.

I am not saying things to alarm anyone, or scare anyone.  This system really had my attention since about mid day yesterday.

The potential does not mean it is going to happen, however preparedness is vital in an actual event.

Soon, there will be a Tornado preparedness guide posted on the website produced by FEMA, that Franklin County Emergency Management Agency Director Ryan Buckingham posted through the agency’s media sources.  Please review this for a refresher.

As long as there is a severe weather threat for Franklin County,  I will be up all night monitoring the situation to keep you informed.  Warnings from 75-100 miles out that any part of the county is potentially in the path of the storm, will be posted on the franklincounty-news.com’s Facebook page.  There will be updates on the website from time to time however.

I am going to make a format change to the page.  I will only post weather updates when there is a potential hazard on the horizon.

Today it is going to be mostly cloudy with a high in the upper 50’s. There is a chance of thunderstorm over night with a low around 50.

There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with a high in the lower 70’s.

After dark is where things can get interesting.  There is an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms.  In the graphic, the enhanced risk of severe weather cuts right through Franklin County.

Here is the hazardous weather outlook issued by the National Weather Service in Paducah, KY.

.DAY ONE…Today and Tonight Thunderstorms enter the forecast later tonight, with heavy rain and lightning the primary anticipated storm related hazards. There is a marginal risk of severe storms, mainly for hail, just to our west, and affecting the far western Ozarks in southeast Missouri, late tonight. .

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorm chances spike Tuesday and Tuesday night, as we warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The increasingly unstable air-mass will be fortified by near record high temperatures in the 70s during the daytime Tuesday. There continues to be an enhanced risk of severe storms for southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of southwest Illinois and far southwest Kentucky, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening into Tuesday night, with a slight risk of severe storms across the remainder of the area. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather hazard, but large hail and isolated tornadoes may also be a possibility. Locally heavy rains and frequent lightning will accompany thunderstorms as well. The cold front makes its passage late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.

Depending upon its timing, the threat of severe storms may linger into Wednesday morning. As a result, a marginal risk of severe storms lingers south of the Ohio river early Wednesday, with a slight risk of severe storms east of the Lakes in western Kentucky, likewise lingering early Wednesday. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather hazard, but large hail and isolated tornadoes may also be possible until the front makes its passage in entirety. Locally heavy rains and frequent lightning will accompany thunderstorms as well.

Rick Shanklin Head Meteorologist with the NWS in Paducah made the following statement on his Facebook page.  “This bares watching – from late tomorrow into Wednesday morning. Per SPC “…supercells with all hazards possible, including the conditional possibility for a strong tornado(s)..” Stay up to date at weather.gov/PAH or your favorite media source.

As of now, it looks like a 3:00 to 7:00 a.m. time frame Wednesday morning when Franklin County will be under the gun.

Shanklin repeatedly refers to this area as nocturnal tornado alley.  We have our strongest and deadliest tornadoes in the overnight hours.

I will be up as long as I have to tomorrow night the radar and will start passing along warnings if Franklin County is in the path of a storm 100 miles out.  I will be in contact with Franklin County Emergency Management agency if any information needs passed along as well.

Showers will linger around for Wednesday.  Thursday and Friday will be seasonal, with highs in the lower 50’s.  The early spring will return for the weekend with highs back up in the 60’s.-sd