Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk of severe weather for Saturday

by Steve Dunford 

I haven’t had to do an update in a while.  I hope you have enjoyed this stretch of beautiful weather we have had.  We will have two perfect days weather-wise coming up with highs mid 70’s today and in the lower 80’s tomorrow.

Saturday we are under an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather.  I have been keeping my eye out on this system since yesterday.  I was expecting to be under a slight risk today.  With the Storm Prediction Center issuing an enhanced three days out, their confidence is pretty high.

As you can see in the graphic, large hail and damaging winds are the main threat.  The tornado threat is low.  That will be determined if the wind shear factor increases.  There will be a lot of instability.  In the graphic to the left, Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel, has his TORCON rating as a three for Southern Illinois on Saturday.  That means there is a 30% of going under a tornado warning in a 50 mile radius of a given point.

As far as timing, the threat could come in the afternoon until the overnight hours, into Sunday morning.  I would not alter my plans for Saturday afternoon yet, as there is a chance we could get nothing.

In my opinion, and keep in mind I only had six credit hours of meteorology in college, for Saturday afternoon I see more pop up thunderstorms ahead of the main system.  With the instability, the atmosphere will be juiced, with it being sunny, humid and highs in the mid 80’s.  There is a very small chance that one of these storms could become a super cell.

If you are out on the water, or out camping, I would become particularly aware from about noon Saturday into the overnight hours on Sunday.  I would keep a NOAA weather Radio with me.  I would begin to take action if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning was issued for a bordering county.

I will be home on Saturday monitoring the radar.  I will give updates on the Facebook page when storms are a couple hours away that would be a threat to Franklin County or the rest of Southern Illinois.

Below are some safety tips of being outdoors and severe weather strikes.